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Smoothing forecast calculatormoothing forecast calck. 2952012 · Il Blog di nintin: Maestro massone. Anche tu puoi creare un blog gratis su Libero Blog. Smoothing forecast calculatormoothing forecast calck. The simplest of the exponentially smoothing methods is naturally called “simple exponential smoothing” (SES). (In some books, it is called “single exponential smoothing”.) This method is suitable for forecasting data with no trend or seasonal pattern. For example, the data in Figure 7.1 do not display any clear trending . Example. Example, Consider once more the data set: 6.4, 5.6, 7.8, 8.8, 11, 11.6, 16.7, 15.3, 21.6, 22.4. Now we will fit a double smoothing model with and . These are the estimates that result in the lowest possible MSE when comparing the orignal series to one step ahead at a time forecasts (since this version of double . Forecasting Formula. Forecasting the next point, The forecasting formula is the basic equation. New forecast is previous forecast plus an error adjustment, This can be written as: where is the forecast error (actual  forecast) for period . In other words, the new forecast is the old one plus an adjustment for the error that .


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